Will Tariffs and Deportations Lower Egg Prices? No, They Won’t.
mass deportations and broad tariffs will not make things cheaper
mass deportations and broad tariffs will not make things cheaper
So, let’s do a thought exercise: will broad tariffs and mass deportations lower the price of my eggs in a year? Let’s run through a rough outline (without taking up an egg industry expert’s time because actual experts have basically already answered this multiple times with a “no”):
- destroy the import market by raising tariffs on things
- this generates and over-saturation of investment in the domestic market because magic
- over the course of 12 months spin up time, you then do between 12 and 26 months of work just to double output with new trained people (who don’t exist) doing that new work:
a) 2–5 months to build out infrastructure like housing. coops, feed systems, temperature control, etc.
b) 5–6 months to breed new hens
c) 1–3 moths to do supply chain reconfiguration so feed, water and vet care can be available
d) 1–2 months to hire more people to work the farm (oh wait, you deported these folks)
e) 2–4 months to stabilize health of animals since larger numbers increase disease risk
f) 1–6 months for permitting and compliance
That’s 1–2 years to double output, and because the US imports 70% of its eggs, you are 20% short of eggs (these numbers may not hold up, but the choice of eggs is just to illustrate the difficulties and bottlenecks every industry can run into if tariffs and deportations are done). So why are eggs cheaper when there are fewer of them at the end of this? Why would price fall when supply has shrunk? Spoiler: they aren’t less expensive.
And guess what, economists who are both Republicans and Democrats agree that broad tariffs and mass deportations will increase costs. So does Elon Musk, who says if Trump wins we are facing economic hardship: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/kaboom-elon-musk-predicts-hardship-economic-turmoil-and-a-stock-market-crash-if-trump-wins-20483008
Trump knows his policies will make the economy tumble. So why is a tumbling economy lowering the prices of eggs? It won’t.
QED
© Copyright November 11, 2024, David August, all rights reserved davidaugust.com
David August is an award-winning actor, acting coach, writer, director, and producer. He plays a role in the movie Dependent’s Day, and after its theatrical run, it’s now out on Amazon (affiliate link). He has appeared on Jimmy Kimmel Live on ABC, on the TV show Ghost Town, and many others. His artwork has been used and featured by multiple writers, filmmakers, theatre practitioners, and others to express visually. Off-screen, he has worked at ad agencies, start-ups, production companies, and major studios, helping them tell stories their customers and clients adore. He has guest lectured at USC’s Marshall School of Business about the Internet.
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